MODEL VERDICT
Icahn Enterprises L.P. (IEP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $8.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $8.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $7.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $7.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $7.63 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $8.44 | +1.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $11.02 | +32.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $29.85 | +257.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $27.84 | +233.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $32.91 | +294.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $24.96 | +198.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $30.18 | +261.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $36.00 | +331.2% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 105.41 | 45.43 | 20.01 | 250.80 | 126.55 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.73 | 13.20 | 7.99 | 54.74 | 17.46 |
| P/FCF | 170.67 | 15.98 | 1.91 | 805.84 | 355.15 |
| P/FFO | 35.50 | 48.50 | 4.14 | 53.87 | 27.30 |
| P/TBV | 1.25 | 1.23 | 0.55 | 1.83 | 0.40 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.13 | 1.12 | 0.53 | 1.67 | 0.36 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.98 | 1.05 | 0.40 | 1.68 | 0.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates IEP's fair value at $36.00 vs the current price of $8.35, implying +331.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $36.00 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $14.41 (P10) to $81.24 (P90), with a median of $33.55.
IEP's current P/E of -8.9x compares to the industry median of 24.5x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -136.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover IEP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for IEP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.