MODEL VERDICT
IHS Holding Limited (IHS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $8.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $8.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $8.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $8.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $8.24 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $13.01 | +58.4% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $36.90 | +349.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $29.17 | +255.1% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $24.67 | +200.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $11.49 | +39.9% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $12.59 | +53.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $12.35 | +50.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $20.12 | +144.9% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $7 | $8 | $9 | $10 | $10 |
| Conservative (7%) | $7 | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $7 | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $10 | $11 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 6.88 | 7.00 | 5.10 | 8.68 | 1.55 |
| P/FCF | 4.75 | 6.02 | 2.11 | 6.10 | 2.28 |
| P/FFO | 74.49 | 12.95 | 4.85 | 205.66 | 113.67 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.85 | 2.65 | 1.50 | 4.41 | 1.47 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.37 | 1.04 | 0.57 | 2.93 | 0.96 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates IHS's fair value at $20.12 vs the current price of $8.21, implying +144.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $20.12 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.31 (P10) to $23.25 (P90), with a median of $19.23.
IHS's current P/E of 19.6x compares to the industry median of 31.0x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -36.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
21 analysts cover IHS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $8.50 (range: $8.50 — $8.50), implying +3.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (9), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for IHS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.