MODEL VERDICT
Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc. (IIPR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $54.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $55.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $52.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $51.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $51.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 6 REIT peers | $97.59 | +79.1% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $109.14 | +100.3% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 4 industry peers | $0.72 | -98.7% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 6 industry peers | $95.30 | +74.9% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $103.45 | +89.9% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $163.36 | +199.8% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $105.39 | +93.4% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $83.64 | +53.5% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $103.51 | +90.0% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $40 | $48 | $56 | $64 | $72 |
| Conservative (5%) | $41 | $50 | $58 | $66 | $74 |
| Base Case (3.7%) | $41 | $49 | $57 | $65 | $73 |
| Bull Case (5%) | $41 | $50 | $58 | $66 | $74 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 31.55 | 18.36 | 12.05 | 57.78 | 21.06 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.52 | 17.61 | 11.54 | 54.84 | 18.00 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.79 | 13.07 | 8.53 | 40.36 | 13.49 |
| P/FCF | 15.47 | 9.25 | 6.78 | 36.58 | 14.21 |
| P/FFO | 21.19 | 13.00 | 7.13 | 44.33 | 15.03 |
| P/TBV | 1.82 | 1.46 | 0.73 | 4.31 | 1.21 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.82 | 1.46 | 0.73 | 4.28 | 1.20 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 16.16 | 10.14 | 5.05 | 33.75 | 11.77 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates IIPR's fair value at $103.51 vs the current price of $54.49, implying +90.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $103.51 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $79.41 (P10) to $126.69 (P90), with a median of $101.85.
IIPR's current P/E of 13.9x compares to the industry median of 26.3x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -47.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 31.6x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover IIPR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $44.00 (range: $44.00 — $44.00), implying -19.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that IIPR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (50.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 15780.0% to approximately $140. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.