MODEL VERDICT
Immatics N.V. (IMTX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $10.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $11.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $11.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $11.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $10.43 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 1 industry peers | $17.50 | +62.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 2 industry peers | $9.38 | -13.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 2 industry peers | $7.38 | -31.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 1 industry peers | $6.44 | -40.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $17.27 | +60.1% | 100% | 61 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 56× | 61× | 66× (Current) | 71× | 76× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $10 | $11 |
| Conservative (7%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 | $11 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $9 | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $9 | $10 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 15.49 | 9.52 | 6.38 | 30.55 | 13.14 |
| P/TBV | 10.03 | 3.79 | 1.32 | 37.17 | 15.23 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.60 | 3.77 | 1.32 | 35.14 | 14.34 |
| P/S Ratio | 37.71 | 16.57 | 3.47 | 163.53 | 56.56 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates IMTX's fair value at $17.27 vs the current price of $10.79, implying +60.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 61/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $17.27 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.28 (P10) to $18.71 (P90), with a median of $15.33.
IMTX's current P/E of 65.7x compares to the industry median of 125.0x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -47.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover IMTX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $21.00 (range: $17.00 — $25.00), implying +94.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 61/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for IMTX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.