MODEL VERDICT
International Money Express, Inc. (IMXI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $15.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $15.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $15.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $15.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $15.82 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $13.46 | -15.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $39.35 | +146.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $18.95 | +18.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $6.43 | -59.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $39.24 | +146.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $13.38 | -16.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $7.68 | -51.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $47.55 | +198.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $35.40 | +122.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $17.60 | +10.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $5.83 | -63.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $22.85 | +43.4% | 100% | 94 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $12 | $14 | $17 | $19 | $21 |
| Conservative (5%) | $12 | $15 | $17 | $19 | $22 |
| Base Case (4.2%) | $12 | $15 | $17 | $19 | $21 |
| Bull Case (6%) | $13 | $15 | $17 | $19 | $22 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.71 | 14.22 | 11.64 | 23.15 | 3.85 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.05 | 9.99 | 7.74 | 12.66 | 2.15 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.85 | 7.43 | 4.05 | 10.56 | 2.19 |
| P/FCF | 66.31 | 19.57 | 6.16 | 313.66 | 121.62 |
| P/FFO | 11.77 | 11.12 | 9.30 | 14.09 | 2.05 |
| P/TBV | 10.58 | 11.09 | 5.68 | 15.85 | 3.81 |
| P/AFFO | 15.56 | 16.11 | 13.51 | 17.52 | 1.64 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.49 | 5.40 | 2.88 | 8.09 | 1.65 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.31 | 1.36 | 0.76 | 1.72 | 0.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates IMXI's fair value at $22.85 vs the current price of $15.94, implying +43.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $22.85 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $18.67 (P10) to $31.07 (P90), with a median of $24.14.
IMXI's current P/E of 14.8x compares to the industry median of 17.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -15.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.7x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
12 analysts cover IMXI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $27.00 (range: $25.00 — $30.00), implying +69.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that IMXI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4470.0% to approximately $23. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.