MODEL VERDICT
indie Semiconductor, Inc. (INDI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $4.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $3.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $3.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $2.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $2.91 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $13.54 | +208.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $13.86 | +215.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.54 | +322.3% | 100% | 44 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 6.60 | 6.03 | 3.52 | 10.24 | 3.39 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.53 | 2.47 | 1.59 | 3.50 | 0.71 |
| P/S Ratio | 25.65 | 11.79 | 3.27 | 73.07 | 28.78 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates INDI's fair value at $18.54 vs the current price of $4.39, implying +322.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 44/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.27 (P10) to $26.99 (P90), with a median of $17.17.
INDI's current P/E of -5.8x compares to the industry median of 69.2x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -108.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
7 analysts cover INDI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $4.25 (range: $4.25 — $4.25), implying -3.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 44/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for INDI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.