MODEL VERDICT
Infosys Limited (INFY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $12.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $12.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $14.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $14.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $13.29 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $7.03 | -43.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $8.56 | -31.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $10.89 | -12.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $11.43 | -8.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $9.83 | -21.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $10.18 | -18.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $7.30 | -41.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $6.15 | -50.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $6.42 | -48.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $10.89 | -12.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $11.43 | -8.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.49 | +0.1% | 100% | 89 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $9 | $11 | $12 | $14 | $16 |
| Conservative (5%) | $10 | $11 | $13 | $14 | $16 |
| Base Case (6.7%) | $10 | $11 | $13 | $15 | $16 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $10 | $12 | $13 | $15 | $17 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.06 | 25.89 | 20.24 | 41.49 | 6.85 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.29 | 18.31 | 14.02 | 29.04 | 5.37 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.38 | 17.62 | 14.11 | 27.87 | 4.69 |
| P/FCF | 28.32 | 30.38 | 18.10 | 36.19 | 6.39 |
| P/FFO | 24.00 | 22.15 | 18.07 | 35.24 | 5.66 |
| P/TBV | 8.71 | 9.33 | 5.11 | 11.46 | 1.98 |
| P/AFFO | 26.80 | 24.20 | 21.02 | 38.87 | 6.43 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.77 | 8.31 | 4.78 | 10.24 | 1.72 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.00 | 4.66 | 3.81 | 7.93 | 1.45 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates INFY's fair value at $12.49 vs the current price of $12.48, implying +0.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.74 (P10) to $14.17 (P90), with a median of $12.95.
INFY's current P/E of 16.4x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +14.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 28.1x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
40 analysts cover INFY with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $16.90 (range: $14.31 — $20.00), implying +35.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (21), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that INFY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (17.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8750.0% to approximately $23. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.