MODEL VERDICT
Ingredion Incorporated (INGR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $110.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $112.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $115.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $112.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $114.66 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $181.69 | +64.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $269.30 | +143.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $252.84 | +129.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $147.01 | +33.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $297.84 | +169.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $184.31 | +66.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $81.68 | -26.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $62.31 | -43.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $72.04 | -34.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $249.07 | +125.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $146.45 | +32.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $206.34 | +86.9% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $72 | $95 | $119 | $143 | $167 |
| Conservative (11%) | $74 | $99 | $124 | $149 | $174 |
| Base Case (16.8%) | $78 | $104 | $131 | $157 | $183 |
| Bull Case (23%) | $82 | $110 | $137 | $164 | $192 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.28 | 14.17 | 9.86 | 55.86 | 16.25 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.88 | 11.74 | 7.86 | 26.31 | 6.11 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.53 | 9.06 | 6.44 | 15.98 | 3.02 |
| P/FCF | 21.97 | 12.47 | 8.07 | 71.22 | 24.37 |
| P/FFO | 10.68 | 9.48 | 7.56 | 19.44 | 3.99 |
| P/TBV | 3.27 | 3.35 | 2.32 | 4.08 | 0.54 |
| P/AFFO | 40.20 | 16.36 | 13.32 | 177.09 | 60.48 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.00 | 2.01 | 1.65 | 2.36 | 0.26 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.97 | 0.95 | 0.83 | 1.23 | 0.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates INGR's fair value at $206.34 vs the current price of $110.43, implying +86.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $206.34 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $172.02 (P10) to $223.34 (P90), with a median of $196.14.
INGR's current P/E of 9.9x compares to the industry median of 22.6x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -56.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.3x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
21 analysts cover INGR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $124.25 (range: $122.00 — $128.00), implying +12.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (11), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 10.1% is 3.4 percentage points above the 7-year average (6.7%), with a Z-score of +1.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$143. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that INGR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2990.0% to approximately $143. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.