MODEL VERDICT
InMode Ltd. (INMD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $14.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $14.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $14.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $14.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $13.53 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $46.72 | +224.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $28.91 | +100.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $35.55 | +146.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $26.70 | +85.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $35.63 | +147.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $31.74 | +120.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $23.75 | +64.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $27.21 | +88.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $23.36 | +62.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $36.08 | +150.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $26.99 | +87.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $32.90 | +128.3% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $9 | $12 | $15 | $18 | $21 |
| Conservative (7%) | $9 | $12 | $15 | $18 | $21 |
| Base Case (9.9%) | $9 | $13 | $16 | $19 | $22 |
| Bull Case (13%) | $10 | $13 | $16 | $19 | $23 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.17 | 18.89 | 7.42 | 36.76 | 10.81 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.20 | 14.94 | 6.09 | 35.87 | 10.92 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.37 | 14.89 | 7.81 | 35.76 | 10.57 |
| P/FCF | 19.13 | 16.94 | 10.20 | 34.90 | 9.37 |
| P/FFO | 19.06 | 18.80 | 7.40 | 36.69 | 10.78 |
| P/TBV | 6.00 | 5.50 | 1.41 | 14.60 | 4.72 |
| P/AFFO | 19.21 | 18.98 | 7.42 | 36.90 | 10.85 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.00 | 5.50 | 1.41 | 14.60 | 4.72 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.55 | 6.71 | 2.59 | 16.98 | 5.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates INMD's fair value at $32.90 vs the current price of $14.41, implying +128.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $32.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $27.57 (P10) to $39.17 (P90), with a median of $33.38.
INMD's current P/E of 10.1x compares to the industry median of 24.9x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -59.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.2x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover INMD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $16.00 (range: $15.00 — $17.00), implying +11.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that INMD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.8σ, meaning margins are 1.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (38.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 18800.0% to approximately $42. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.