MODEL VERDICT
International Seaways, Inc. (INSW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $85.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $79.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $76.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $74.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $73.86 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $77.68 | -8.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $83.90 | -1.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $91.97 | +8.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $7.88 | -90.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $72.92 | -14.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $0.21 | -99.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $48.69 | -42.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $54.83 | -35.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $90.55 | +6.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $7.86 | -90.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $60.54 | -28.9% | 100% | 84 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $65 | $78 | $91 | $104 | $117 |
| Conservative (7%) | $66 | $80 | $93 | $106 | $119 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $69 | $82 | $96 | $110 | $123 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $71 | $85 | $99 | $113 | $127 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 5.22 | 4.52 | 4.04 | 7.79 | 1.74 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.10 | 7.12 | 4.58 | 26.26 | 9.67 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.99 | 5.47 | 3.85 | 10.36 | 2.47 |
| P/FCF | 17.58 | 8.80 | 2.80 | 63.15 | 22.91 |
| P/FFO | 5.60 | 4.40 | 3.15 | 11.62 | 3.25 |
| P/TBV | 0.93 | 0.96 | 0.48 | 1.31 | 0.35 |
| P/AFFO | 13.78 | 12.32 | 4.69 | 25.38 | 9.61 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.93 | 0.96 | 0.48 | 1.31 | 0.35 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.07 | 2.10 | 1.10 | 2.86 | 0.53 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates INSW's fair value at $60.54 vs the current price of $85.14, implying -28.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $60.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $48.78 (P10) to $61.10 (P90), with a median of $54.88.
INSW's current P/E of 13.7x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -7.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 5.2x over 4 years. Signal: Fair Value.
13 analysts cover INSW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $83.33 (range: $80.00 — $90.00), implying -2.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: INSW trades at the 2500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (5.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that INSW's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (27.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7170.0% to approximately $24. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.