MODEL VERDICT
Intel Corporation (INTC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $45.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $44.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $46.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $47.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $45.55 | Pending | +10.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 64 analyst estimates | $16.45 | -63.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $42.14 | -7.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $94.70 | +107.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $98.44 | +115.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $29.95 | -34.3% | 100% | 50 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 34.53 | 12.71 | 10.09 | 125.63 | 50.95 |
| EV/EBIT | 47.63 | 14.98 | 10.11 | 154.79 | 59.00 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.80 | 9.00 | 6.72 | 26.18 | 7.72 |
| P/FCF | 16.32 | 15.81 | 10.07 | 23.08 | 6.52 |
| P/FFO | 10.17 | 7.53 | 5.18 | 18.75 | 5.63 |
| P/TBV | 3.14 | 2.72 | 1.12 | 6.63 | 1.96 |
| P/AFFO | 15.66 | 17.09 | 11.28 | 18.59 | 3.86 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.93 | 1.92 | 0.82 | 3.45 | 0.92 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.82 | 2.71 | 1.62 | 3.90 | 0.91 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates INTC's fair value at $29.95 vs the current price of $45.61, implying -34.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 50/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $29.95 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $23.64 (P10) to $41.58 (P90), with a median of $32.42.
INTC's current P/E of -558.3x compares to the industry median of 43.0x (47 peers in the group). This represents a -1398.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 34.5x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
83 analysts cover INTC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $46.82 (range: $20.00 — $66.00), implying +2.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (28), Hold (46), Sell (9), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 50/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for INTC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.