MODEL VERDICT
Invitation Homes Inc. (INVH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $28.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $27.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $27.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $26.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $26.02 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 8 REIT peers | $26.59 | -6.8% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 6 REIT peers | $27.65 | -3.1% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $40.95 | +43.5% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $26.20 | -8.2% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $34.29 | +20.2% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $27.79 | -2.6% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $31.89 | +11.8% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $32.42 | +13.6% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $30.73 | +7.7% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $37.43 | +31.2% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $27 | $29 | $31 | $33 | $36 |
| Conservative (15%) | $29 | $31 | $33 | $35 | $37 |
| Base Case (22.4%) | $31 | $33 | $35 | $38 | $40 |
| Bull Case (30%) | $32 | $35 | $37 | $40 | $42 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 65.13 | 47.05 | 28.95 | 111.00 | 32.92 |
| EV/EBIT | 41.78 | 37.19 | 33.66 | 57.48 | 9.55 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.53 | 20.94 | 17.00 | 29.44 | 4.62 |
| P/FCF | 26.43 | 23.61 | 17.69 | 35.26 | 6.46 |
| P/FFO | 20.16 | 17.73 | 12.77 | 30.77 | 5.86 |
| P/TBV | 2.07 | 1.99 | 1.80 | 2.74 | 0.31 |
| P/AFFO | 25.48 | 22.27 | 15.60 | 38.02 | 7.52 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.02 | 1.93 | 1.75 | 2.67 | 0.31 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.81 | 8.60 | 6.24 | 13.15 | 2.15 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates INVH's fair value at $37.43 vs the current price of $28.53, implying +31.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $37.43 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $33.86 (P10) to $41.26 (P90), with a median of $37.41.
INVH's current P/E of 29.7x compares to the industry median of 28.9x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +2.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 65.1x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
33 analysts cover INVH with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $32.22 (range: $27.00 — $40.00), implying +12.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (17), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 20.9% is 5.3 percentage points above the 7-year average (15.6%), with a Z-score of +1.0σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$47. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that INVH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6400.0% to approximately $47. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.