MODEL VERDICT
Innovex International, Inc. (INVX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $27.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $27.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $25.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $26.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $26.51 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $28.87 | +4.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $29.75 | +7.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $31.66 | +14.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $44.18 | +59.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $59.43 | +114.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $53.01 | +91.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $25.91 | -6.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $21.19 | -23.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $34.45 | +24.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $47.64 | +72.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $38.16 | +37.8% | 100% | 65 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $24 | $26 | $29 | $31 | $34 |
| Conservative (7%) | $24 | $27 | $29 | $32 | $35 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $25 | $28 | $30 | $33 | $36 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $26 | $29 | $31 | $34 | $37 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates INVX's fair value at $38.16 vs the current price of $27.69, implying +37.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $38.16 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $32.28 (P10) to $40.41 (P90), with a median of $36.30.
INVX's current P/E of 23.1x compares to the industry median of 26.4x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -12.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
2 analysts cover INVX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $27.00 (range: $27.00 — $27.00), implying -2.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that INVX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 230.0% to approximately $28. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.