MODEL VERDICT
The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. (IPG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $24.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $24.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $24.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $24.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $24.57 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $22.86 | -7.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $26.35 | +7.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 2 industry peers | $27.02 | +10.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $24.16 | -1.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $36.41 | +48.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $27.20 | +10.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $2.44 | -90.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $42.19 | +71.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $36.09 | +46.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 2 industry peers | $21.17 | -13.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $24.06 | -2.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $28.08 | +14.3% | 100% | 83 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $17 | $21 | $24 | $28 | $32 |
| Conservative (5%) | $17 | $21 | $25 | $29 | $33 |
| Base Case (1.7%) | $17 | $20 | $24 | $28 | $32 |
| Bull Case (2%) | $17 | $21 | $24 | $28 | $32 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.66 | 14.05 | 11.45 | 26.43 | 4.95 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.34 | 11.54 | 9.11 | 21.53 | 4.19 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.72 | 9.15 | 8.52 | 13.55 | 1.73 |
| P/FCF | 16.66 | 11.59 | 5.51 | 33.55 | 11.68 |
| P/FFO | 11.02 | 10.86 | 9.24 | 14.41 | 1.79 |
| P/AFFO | 13.58 | 12.73 | 10.64 | 19.50 | 2.83 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.23 | 3.09 | 2.71 | 4.14 | 0.46 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.08 | 1.02 | 0.83 | 1.46 | 0.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates IPG's fair value at $28.08 vs the current price of $24.57, implying +14.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $28.08 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $24.66 (P10) to $32.72 (P90), with a median of $28.57.
IPG's current P/E of 13.4x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -9.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.7x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
34 analysts cover IPG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $36.57 (range: $26.00 — $56.00), implying +48.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (18), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (18), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that IPG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5760.0% to approximately $39. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.