MODEL VERDICT
IPG Photonics Corporation (IPGP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $122.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $124.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $125.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $121.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $127.32 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $67.48 | -45.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $72.10 | -41.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $43.22 | -64.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $21.37 | -82.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $188.95 | +53.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $171.86 | +39.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $45.31 | -63.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $69.23 | -43.7% | 100% | 58 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 142× | 155× | 168× (Current) | 181× | 194× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $106 | $115 | $125 | $135 | $144 |
| Conservative (5%) | $109 | $119 | $129 | $139 | $149 |
| Base Case (-24.5%) | $78 | $85 | $93 | $100 | $107 |
| Bull Case (-33%) | $69 | $76 | $82 | $89 | $95 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 52.89 | 43.54 | 23.44 | 98.08 | 28.18 |
| EV/EBIT | 61.65 | 24.65 | 17.98 | 181.12 | 62.82 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.84 | 20.16 | 15.38 | 38.21 | 9.57 |
| P/FCF | 38.85 | 37.95 | 21.58 | 60.90 | 14.12 |
| P/FFO | 28.90 | 26.50 | 17.80 | 47.36 | 10.10 |
| P/TBV | 2.76 | 2.19 | 1.52 | 4.83 | 1.21 |
| P/AFFO | 67.58 | 53.97 | 28.85 | 159.45 | 47.49 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.63 | 2.13 | 1.43 | 4.64 | 1.16 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.15 | 3.99 | 3.04 | 10.02 | 2.52 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates IPGP's fair value at $69.23 vs the current price of $122.87, implying -43.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 58/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $69.23 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $61.11 (P10) to $81.02 (P90), with a median of $71.03.
IPGP's current P/E of 168.3x compares to the industry median of 59.2x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +184.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 52.9x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
27 analysts cover IPGP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $151.67 (range: $110.00 — $180.00), implying +23.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (11), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 58/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: IPGP trades at the 9150th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (52.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that IPGP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.5σ, meaning margins are 1.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (14.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5000.0% to approximately $184. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.