MODEL VERDICT
Iron Mountain Incorporated (IRM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $127.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $116.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $118.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $113.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $109.37 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 9 REIT peers | $60.97 | -52.1% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $75.49 | -40.6% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $67.60 | -46.9% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $18.32 | -85.6% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $68.85 | -45.9% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $222.20 | +74.7% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $204.76 | +61.0% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $67.48 | -46.9% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 218× | 239× | 260× (Current) | 281× | 302× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $109 | $119 | $130 | $140 | $151 |
| Conservative (5%) | $112 | $123 | $134 | $145 | $155 |
| Base Case (-16.3%) | $89 | $98 | $107 | $115 | $124 |
| Bull Case (-22%) | $83 | $91 | $99 | $107 | $115 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 81.67 | 34.27 | 24.77 | 172.31 | 67.83 |
| EV/EBIT | 33.14 | 25.98 | 24.14 | 48.28 | 10.40 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.29 | 17.20 | 12.03 | 24.46 | 4.24 |
| P/FCF | 125.40 | 77.60 | 15.92 | 330.48 | 142.77 |
| P/FFO | 16.13 | 13.27 | 8.41 | 28.14 | 7.38 |
| P/AFFO | 31.61 | 31.96 | 15.23 | 47.30 | 13.30 |
| P/B Ratio | 20.57 | 16.38 | 6.26 | 52.79 | 18.92 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.26 | 3.39 | 2.05 | 5.06 | 1.04 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates IRM's fair value at $67.48 vs the current price of $127.19, implying -46.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $67.48 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $63.44 (P10) to $85.34 (P90), with a median of $73.59.
IRM's current P/E of 259.6x compares to the industry median of 37.4x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +594.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 81.7x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
20 analysts cover IRM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $132.33 (range: $127.00 — $140.00), implying +4.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (2), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: IRM trades at the 9330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (81.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that IRM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4750.0% to approximately $67. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.