MODEL VERDICT
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IRWD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $4.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $3.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $4.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $4.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $3.63 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $11.80 | +165.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $8.84 | +99.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 2 industry peers | $38.63 | +770.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $11.23 | +152.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $18.41 | +314.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $11.68 | +163.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $5.19 | +16.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $5.29 | +19.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 2 industry peers | $23.17 | +421.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $10.48 | +136.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $27.59 | +521.5% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $3 | $3 | $5 | $6 | $7 |
| Conservative (5%) | $3 | $3 | $5 | $6 | $8 |
| Base Case (-0.3%) | $3 | $3 | $5 | $6 | $7 |
| Bull Case (-0%) | $3 | $3 | $5 | $6 | $7 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 168.89 | 12.91 | 3.63 | 805.45 | 355.90 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.32 | 12.26 | 5.80 | 18.95 | 4.53 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.03 | 10.52 | 5.94 | 18.54 | 4.68 |
| P/FCF | 90.76 | 8.44 | 4.72 | 587.29 | 218.96 |
| P/FFO | 60.07 | 14.88 | 3.62 | 245.31 | 94.75 |
| P/TBV | 11.97 | 3.54 | 3.16 | 29.21 | 14.93 |
| P/AFFO | 66.85 | 15.02 | 3.62 | 257.98 | 101.12 |
| P/B Ratio | 11.97 | 3.54 | 3.16 | 29.21 | 14.93 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.98 | 4.63 | 2.02 | 5.62 | 1.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates IRWD's fair value at $27.59 vs the current price of $4.44, implying +521.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $27.59 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.27 (P10) to $50.15 (P90), with a median of $27.19.
IRWD's current P/E of 6.8x compares to the industry median of 59.4x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -88.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 168.9x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
30 analysts cover IRWD with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $4.80 (range: $3.70 — $5.70), implying +8.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (16), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that IRWD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (21.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 124370.0% to approximately $60. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.