MODEL VERDICT
Innovative Solutions and Support, Inc. (ISSC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $21.36 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $21.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $19.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $21.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $23.52 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $30.16 | +41.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $36.72 | +71.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $47.25 | +121.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $17.05 | -20.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $32.12 | +50.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $16.56 | -22.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $85.44 | +300.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $22.48 | +5.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $22.00 | +3.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $49.33 | +130.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $15.98 | -25.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $29.53 | +38.2% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (14%) | $20 | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 |
| Conservative (23%) | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 | $30 |
| Base Case (35.9%) | $24 | $26 | $29 | $31 | $33 |
| Bull Case (48%) | $26 | $29 | $31 | $34 | $37 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.99 | 24.37 | 21.35 | 53.09 | 11.52 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.87 | 20.60 | 16.57 | 50.06 | 12.10 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.14 | 20.53 | 15.03 | 50.06 | 12.39 |
| P/FCF | 44.94 | 48.83 | 23.91 | 82.65 | 20.70 |
| P/FFO | 24.81 | 22.09 | 16.41 | 42.99 | 9.22 |
| P/TBV | 6.29 | 4.62 | 2.74 | 10.36 | 3.03 |
| P/AFFO | 27.06 | 24.75 | 17.69 | 44.56 | 8.74 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.03 | 4.02 | 2.73 | 5.23 | 0.87 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.61 | 4.90 | 3.16 | 5.63 | 0.84 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ISSC's fair value at $29.53 vs the current price of $21.36, implying +38.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $29.53 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $25.87 (P10) to $32.90 (P90), with a median of $29.34.
ISSC's current P/E of 24.3x compares to the industry median of 53.7x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -54.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover ISSC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $23.00 (range: $20.00 — $26.00), implying +7.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 21.0% is 8.6 percentage points above the 7-year average (19.2%), with a Z-score of +1.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$23. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ISSC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (19.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 900.0% to approximately $23. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.