MODEL VERDICT
Gartner, Inc. (IT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $146.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $150.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $154.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $152.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $143.72 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $300.20 | +105.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $282.34 | +92.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $468.11 | +219.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $361.30 | +146.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $320.56 | +119.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $379.42 | +159.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $2132.43 | +1356.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $557.34 | +280.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $531.15 | +262.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $472.98 | +223.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $382.01 | +160.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $488.47 | +233.7% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (18%) | $94 | $132 | $169 | $207 | $245 |
| Conservative (29%) | $103 | $144 | $185 | $227 | $268 |
| Base Case (44.3%) | $115 | $162 | $208 | $254 | $300 |
| Bull Case (60%) | $128 | $179 | $230 | $281 | $332 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 50.21 | 40.71 | 30.28 | 96.12 | 23.00 |
| EV/EBIT | 33.81 | 29.45 | 25.63 | 45.14 | 8.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.43 | 26.97 | 22.99 | 28.93 | 2.40 |
| P/FCF | 28.21 | 27.44 | 17.60 | 34.21 | 6.35 |
| P/FFO | 29.68 | 29.69 | 26.07 | 33.48 | 2.58 |
| P/AFFO | 36.60 | 35.88 | 28.02 | 47.35 | 7.85 |
| P/B Ratio | 45.71 | 27.92 | 13.22 | 119.62 | 40.55 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.71 | 4.98 | 2.96 | 6.09 | 1.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates IT's fair value at $488.47 vs the current price of $146.40, implying +233.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $488.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $369.72 (P10) to $453.47 (P90), with a median of $411.48.
IT's current P/E of 9.2x compares to the industry median of 29.3x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -68.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 50.2x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
18 analysts cover IT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $189.30 (range: $140.00 — $275.00), implying +29.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (5), Hold (9), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that IT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 36610.0% to approximately $682. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.