MODEL VERDICT
Investors Title Company (ITIC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $234.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $245.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $241.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $233.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $230.55 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $187.01 | -20.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $165.16 | -29.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $53.13 | -77.4% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $360.89 | +53.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $185.05 | -21.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $149.66 | -36.3% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $371.60 | +58.2% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $189.76 | -19.2% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $182.75 | -22.2% | 100% | 93 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $170 | $208 | $246 | $284 | $322 |
| Conservative (5%) | $175 | $214 | $253 | $292 | $331 |
| Base Case (-2.2%) | $163 | $200 | $236 | $272 | $309 |
| Bull Case (-3%) | $162 | $198 | $234 | $270 | $306 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.90 | 11.72 | 5.59 | 14.42 | 3.48 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.21 | 8.36 | 4.04 | 11.03 | 2.76 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.47 | 7.47 | 3.92 | 9.77 | 2.29 |
| P/FCF | 13.50 | 12.46 | 8.25 | 19.98 | 5.21 |
| P/FFO | 9.70 | 10.19 | 5.39 | 12.59 | 2.74 |
| P/TBV | 1.63 | 1.67 | 1.25 | 1.99 | 0.28 |
| P/AFFO | 12.00 | 12.85 | 5.95 | 18.47 | 4.56 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.51 | 1.58 | 1.16 | 1.78 | 0.25 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.40 | 1.37 | 0.99 | 1.73 | 0.30 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates ITIC's fair value at $182.75 vs the current price of $234.83, implying -22.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $182.75 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $167.02 (P10) to $204.16 (P90), with a median of $184.07.
ITIC's current P/E of 12.6x compares to the industry median of 10.1x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +25.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.9x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for ITIC.
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ITIC trades at the 6670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ITIC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 730.0% to approximately $218. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.