MODEL VERDICT
Ituran Location and Control Ltd. (ITRN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $58.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $57.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $55.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $54.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $53.54 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $84.29 | +44.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $73.02 | +25.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $84.25 | +44.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $58.01 | -0.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $103.44 | +77.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $99.75 | +71.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $184.05 | +215.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $89.55 | +53.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $79.18 | +35.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $84.61 | +45.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $57.99 | -0.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $79.11 | +35.7% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $52 | $59 | $66 | $72 | $79 |
| Conservative (20%) | $56 | $63 | $70 | $77 | $84 |
| Base Case (30.6%) | $61 | $69 | $76 | $84 | $92 |
| Bull Case (41%) | $66 | $74 | $82 | $91 | $99 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.77 | 14.73 | 11.30 | 48.33 | 13.45 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.98 | 9.77 | 7.53 | 21.51 | 4.98 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.65 | 6.31 | 5.40 | 7.82 | 1.01 |
| P/FCF | 12.82 | 12.78 | 7.96 | 23.18 | 5.11 |
| P/FFO | 10.66 | 10.58 | 7.54 | 17.78 | 3.51 |
| P/TBV | 5.51 | 4.86 | 4.19 | 8.46 | 1.61 |
| P/AFFO | 18.22 | 15.44 | 9.91 | 46.28 | 12.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.41 | 3.24 | 2.82 | 4.02 | 0.49 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.85 | 1.84 | 1.47 | 2.38 | 0.30 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ITRN's fair value at $79.11 vs the current price of $58.31, implying +35.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $79.11 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $60.36 (P10) to $84.28 (P90), with a median of $71.85.
ITRN's current P/E of 20.0x compares to the industry median of 28.9x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -30.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.8x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover ITRN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $56.00 (range: $55.00 — $57.00), implying -4.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ITRN trades at the 1430th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (19.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ITRN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2730.0% to approximately $42. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.