MODEL VERDICT
Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. (ITUB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $8.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $8.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $9.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $9.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $9.16 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $41.95 | +386.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $29.63 | +243.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $4.30 | -50.1% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $39.88 | +362.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $41.95 | +386.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $6.72 | -22.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.10 | +144.8% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $27 | $35 | $43 | $50 | $58 |
| Conservative (5%) | $28 | $36 | $44 | $52 | $60 |
| Base Case (6.4%) | $28 | $36 | $44 | $52 | $60 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $29 | $37 | $45 | $53 | $62 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 2.01 | 2.07 | 1.19 | 2.96 | 0.72 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.91 | 15.07 | 9.06 | 82.35 | 25.88 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.66 | 13.33 | 8.24 | 48.08 | 13.56 |
| P/FCF | 1.40 | 0.91 | 0.35 | 3.37 | 1.15 |
| P/FFO | 1.66 | 1.77 | 1.03 | 2.35 | 0.54 |
| P/TBV | 0.36 | 0.33 | 0.23 | 0.52 | 0.12 |
| P/AFFO | 1.85 | 1.96 | 1.07 | 2.61 | 0.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.31 | 0.29 | 0.20 | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| Div Yield | 0.27 | 0.26 | 0.15 | 0.44 | 0.11 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.15 | 0.39 | 0.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates ITUB's fair value at $21.10 vs the current price of $8.62, implying +144.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.10 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $17.71 (P10) to $24.36 (P90), with a median of $20.86.
ITUB's current P/E of 11.4x compares to the industry median of 11.1x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +2.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 2.0x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
12 analysts cover ITUB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $6.38 (range: $4.37 — $7.77), implying -26.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (5), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ITUB trades at the 2770th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (2.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ITUB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1350.0% to approximately $7. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.