MODEL VERDICT
Incannex Healthcare Limited (IXHL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $4.24 | CURRENT | -7.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 35 industry peers | $0.44 | -89.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 35 industry peers | $0.01 | -99.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $0.25 | -94.0% | 100% | 43 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 745.65 | 963.28 | 27.64 | 1028.38 | 481.17 |
| P/B Ratio | 745.65 | 963.28 | 27.64 | 1028.38 | 481.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 4 valuation metrics, the model estimates IXHL's fair value at $0.25 vs the current price of $4.24, implying -94.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 43/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $0.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
IXHL's current P/E of -3.1x compares to the industry median of 24.1x (21 peers in the group). This represents a -112.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for IXHL.
The model confidence score is 43/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for IXHL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.