MODEL VERDICT
Jacobs Solutions Inc. (J)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $128.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $126.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $128.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $127.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $122.91 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $219.14 | +70.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $213.58 | +65.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $85.50 | -33.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $144.81 | +12.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $172.42 | +33.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $130.32 | +1.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $176.39 | +36.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $189.97 | +47.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $85.50 | -33.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $144.81 | +12.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $160.44 | +24.4% | 100% | 65 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 46× | 50× | 54× (Current) | 58× | 62× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $112 | $121 | $131 | $141 | $151 |
| Conservative (5%) | $115 | $125 | $135 | $145 | $155 |
| Base Case (-3.7%) | $105 | $115 | $124 | $133 | $142 |
| Bull Case (-5%) | $104 | $113 | $122 | $131 | $140 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates J's fair value at $160.44 vs the current price of $128.92, implying +24.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $160.44 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $139.40 (P10) to $198.31 (P90), with a median of $168.51.
J's current P/E of 54.2x compares to the industry median of 35.9x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +50.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
38 analysts cover J with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $154.86 (range: $137.00 — $175.00), implying +20.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (24), Hold (14), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that J's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (3.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1000.0% to approximately $142. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.