MODEL VERDICT
Jack in the Box Inc. (JACK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $16.92 | CURRENT | -27.3% |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $16.80 | Pending | -17.2% |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $20.73 | Pending | -43.5% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $20.41 | Pending | -43.9% |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $22.98 | Monitoring | -50.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 23 analyst estimates | $62.95 | +272.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 22 industry peers | $89.37 | +428.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Price / Sales 28 industry peers | $87.73 | +418.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 24 industry peers | $110.00 | +550.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $86.84 | +413.2% | 100% | 60 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.58 | 12.96 | 11.87 | 24.04 | 5.74 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.25 | 17.67 | 14.34 | 51.21 | 13.99 |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.95 | 14.81 | 12.32 | 85.34 | 26.74 |
| P/FCF | 12.67 | 12.37 | 4.90 | 17.41 | 4.49 |
| P/FFO | 14.99 | 11.43 | 8.43 | 34.73 | 10.06 |
| P/AFFO | 14.98 | 14.34 | 11.48 | 19.95 | 3.73 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.25 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 2.14 | 0.76 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates JACK's fair value at $86.84 vs the current price of $16.92, implying +413.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 60/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $86.84 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $30.55 (P10) to $51.04 (P90), with a median of $40.80.
JACK's current P/E of -4.0x compares to the industry median of 27.6x (23 peers in the group). This represents a -114.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.6x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
41 analysts cover JACK with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $19.92 (range: $15.00 — $25.00), implying +17.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (24), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 60/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for JACK.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.