MODEL VERDICT
Jamf Holding Corp. (JAMF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $13.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $13.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $13.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $13.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $13.05 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $19.41 | +48.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $2.76 | -78.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $1.58 | -87.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $28.59 | +119.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $28.77 | +120.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $2.74 | -79.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $14.87 | +13.9% | 100% | 63 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 65.81 | 68.31 | 31.25 | 81.14 | 20.44 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.89 | 3.67 | 2.51 | 6.09 | 1.36 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.33 | 5.37 | 2.87 | 12.27 | 4.53 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates JAMF's fair value at $14.87 vs the current price of $13.05, implying +13.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $14.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.05 (P10) to $17.75 (P90), with a median of $14.37.
JAMF's current P/E of -24.6x compares to the industry median of 26.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -194.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
15 analysts cover JAMF with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $13.00 (range: $13.00 — $13.00), implying -0.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (10), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for JAMF.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.