MODEL VERDICT
OneSpan Inc. (OSPN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $11.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $11.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $11.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $11.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $10.60 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $24.59 | +113.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $27.22 | +135.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $39.99 | +246.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $30.39 | +163.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $25.73 | +123.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $31.65 | +174.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $31.71 | +174.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $29.11 | +152.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $38.74 | +235.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $30.50 | +164.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $36.45 | +215.8% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 6× (Current) | 8× | 10× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $8 | $8 | $12 | $16 | $20 |
| Conservative (7%) | $8 | $8 | $12 | $16 | $20 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $8 | $8 | $13 | $17 | $21 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $9 | $9 | $13 | $17 | $22 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 35.02 | 12.70 | 6.76 | 85.60 | 43.91 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.80 | 13.21 | 8.70 | 43.47 | 18.91 |
| EV/EBITDA | 35.28 | 18.10 | 6.60 | 98.30 | 42.64 |
| P/FCF | 39.78 | 39.64 | 9.78 | 70.04 | 31.47 |
| P/FFO | 40.80 | 23.24 | 5.62 | 111.10 | 48.62 |
| P/TBV | 5.71 | 6.24 | 3.12 | 7.89 | 1.57 |
| P/AFFO | 66.73 | 35.18 | 6.25 | 190.28 | 85.45 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.72 | 2.71 | 1.82 | 3.41 | 0.57 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.65 | 2.71 | 1.83 | 3.84 | 0.73 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates OSPN's fair value at $36.45 vs the current price of $11.54, implying +215.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $36.45 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $27.49 (P10) to $48.92 (P90), with a median of $37.38.
OSPN's current P/E of 6.1x compares to the industry median of 21.0x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -71.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 35.0x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
15 analysts cover OSPN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $15.50 (range: $13.00 — $18.00), implying +34.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 28.5% is 25.5 percentage points above the 3-year average (3.0%), with a Z-score of +1.5σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$7. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that OSPN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.5σ, meaning margins are 1.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (3.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4040.0% to approximately $7. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.