MODEL VERDICT
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $300.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $310.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $302.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $318.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $329.19 | Below threshold | -2.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 21 industry peers | $282.77 | -5.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $190.20 | -36.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 21 bank peers | $170.37 | -43.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 19 industry peers | $168.84 | -43.8% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 21 industry peers | $282.07 | -6.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 21 analyst estimates | $228.11 | -24.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $213.72 | -28.8% | 100% | 97 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $229 | $270 | $312 | $353 | $395 |
| Conservative (8%) | $236 | $278 | $321 | $364 | $407 |
| Base Case (13.0%) | $245 | $290 | $335 | $379 | $424 |
| Bull Case (18%) | $255 | $302 | $348 | $395 | $441 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.74 | 11.09 | 10.31 | 14.31 | 1.48 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.84 | 11.36 | 4.82 | 15.66 | 3.86 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.30 | 9.16 | 4.26 | 13.20 | 3.22 |
| P/FCF | 35.97 | 21.34 | 3.72 | 110.05 | 43.70 |
| P/FFO | 9.33 | 8.90 | 8.28 | 10.39 | 0.92 |
| P/TBV | 1.95 | 1.90 | 1.65 | 2.46 | 0.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.56 | 1.53 | 1.30 | 2.00 | 0.24 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.82 | 2.59 | 2.12 | 3.77 | 0.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates JPM's fair value at $213.72 vs the current price of $300.30, implying -28.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $213.72 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $203.38 (P10) to $232.63 (P90), with a median of $217.69.
JPM's current P/E of 15.2x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (21 peers in the group). This represents a +6.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.7x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
60 analysts cover JPM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $336.10 (range: $280.00 — $391.00), implying +11.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (32), Hold (25), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: JPM trades at the 5710th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that JPM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1310.0% to approximately $261. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.