MODEL VERDICT
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $312.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $308.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $310.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $305.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $309.87 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 14 industry peers | $416.72 | +33.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 14 industry peers | $205.65 | -34.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 13 bank peers | $215.74 | -31.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 13 industry peers | $266.51 | -14.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 14 industry peers | $416.63 | +33.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 14 analyst estimates | $269.07 | -13.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $278.52 | -10.9% | 100% | 94 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $249 | $291 | $332 | $374 | $416 |
| Conservative (8%) | $257 | $300 | $343 | $386 | $428 |
| Base Case (13.0%) | $268 | $312 | $357 | $402 | $446 |
| Bull Case (18%) | $278 | $325 | $371 | $418 | $464 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.74 | 11.09 | 10.31 | 14.31 | 1.48 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.84 | 11.36 | 4.82 | 15.66 | 3.86 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.30 | 9.16 | 4.26 | 13.20 | 3.22 |
| P/FCF | 35.97 | 21.34 | 3.72 | 110.05 | 43.70 |
| P/FFO | 9.33 | 8.90 | 8.28 | 10.39 | 0.92 |
| P/TBV | 1.95 | 1.90 | 1.65 | 2.46 | 0.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.56 | 1.53 | 1.30 | 2.00 | 0.24 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.82 | 2.59 | 2.12 | 3.77 | 0.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates JPM's fair value at $278.52 vs the current price of $312.49, implying -10.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $278.52 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $242.69 (P10) to $290.94 (P90), with a median of $266.31.
JPM's current P/E of 15.8x compares to the industry median of 21.1x (14 peers in the group). This represents a -25.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.7x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
61 analysts cover JPM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $338.78 (range: $295.00 — $391.00), implying +8.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (32), Hold (26), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: JPM trades at the 5710th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that JPM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1650.0% to approximately $261. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.