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Jackson Financial Inc. (JXN) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Jackson Financial Inc. (JXN)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$114.84
→
Intrinsic$222.62
+94%
$149.74$222.62$361.16
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests JXN could have 94% upside at 8% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $115, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 8%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $150 → Bull $361. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →4%6%8%10%
8%$265$290$317$346
10%$187$204$223$242
12%$143$156$170$185
14%$116$126$137$149

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($361) offers 214% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (8%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($150) with 6% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year Net Income Projection

Year 1$1.02B
Year 2$1.10B
Year 3$1.19B
Year 4$1.29B
Year 5$1.39B
Terminal$20.45B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Net Income$946.00MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses Net Income (FCF not meaningful for insurers). See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is JXN stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

JXN trades at $114.84 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $222.62, implying +96% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 8.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of JXN's future cash flows. The bear case ($159.00) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is JXN's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $946M, projected at 8.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $610M net debt and dividing by 0.07B shares: Bear $159.00 | Base $222.62 | Bull $307.68. Current price $114.84 implies +96% to base case.

How is JXN's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 8.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($17.18B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 18.2x.