MODEL VERDICT
Jackson Financial Inc. (JXN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $114.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $113.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $109.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $107.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $101.62 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $155.34 | +36.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $168.63 | +47.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $193.33 | +69.3% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $128.59 | +12.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $155.27 | +36.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $48.34 | -57.7% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $54.08 | -52.6% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $123.18 | +7.9% | 100% | 66 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $73 | $98 | $122 | $147 | $171 |
| Conservative (7%) | $75 | $100 | $125 | $150 | $175 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $77 | $103 | $129 | $155 | $181 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $80 | $107 | $133 | $160 | $187 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 3.46 | 2.96 | 0.50 | 7.42 | 3.23 |
| EV/EBIT | 3.29 | 3.22 | 0.40 | 6.31 | 2.94 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.29 | 3.22 | 0.40 | 6.31 | 2.93 |
| P/FCF | 0.79 | 0.73 | 0.59 | 1.12 | 0.24 |
| P/TBV | 0.36 | 0.34 | 0.33 | 0.41 | 0.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.43 | 0.37 | 0.33 | 0.65 | 0.15 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.11 | 1.01 | 0.32 | 2.10 | 0.79 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates JXN's fair value at $123.18 vs the current price of $114.19, implying +7.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $123.18 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $107.61 (P10) to $142.13 (P90), with a median of $124.93.
JXN's current P/E of 9.7x compares to the industry median of 13.2x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -26.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 3.5x over 4 years. Signal: Discount.
6 analysts cover JXN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $120.00 (range: $105.00 — $137.00), implying +5.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (25), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: JXN trades at the 3890th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (3.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that JXN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (20.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4000.0% to approximately $69. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.