MODEL VERDICT
Kellanova (K)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $83.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $83.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $83.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $83.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $83.44 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $54.94 | -34.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $69.60 | -16.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $80.81 | -3.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $56.28 | -32.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $77.33 | -7.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $57.19 | -31.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $49.60 | -40.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $59.10 | -29.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $43.22 | -48.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $78.28 | -6.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $56.28 | -32.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $69.69 | -16.5% | 100% | 94 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $72 | $80 | $88 | $96 | $104 |
| Conservative (5%) | $73 | $81 | $90 | $98 | $106 |
| Base Case (6.7%) | $75 | $83 | $91 | $99 | $108 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $76 | $85 | $93 | $102 | $110 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.90 | 20.26 | 13.96 | 23.96 | 4.21 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.10 | 17.50 | 15.08 | 25.46 | 3.50 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.73 | 15.03 | 12.24 | 18.49 | 2.20 |
| P/FCF | 21.89 | 19.78 | 13.60 | 37.72 | 7.71 |
| P/FFO | 13.65 | 14.62 | 10.05 | 16.86 | 2.83 |
| P/AFFO | 22.00 | 25.89 | 14.61 | 30.05 | 6.47 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.89 | 5.72 | 4.92 | 7.22 | 0.81 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.68 | 1.64 | 1.37 | 2.20 | 0.28 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates K's fair value at $69.69 vs the current price of $83.44, implying -16.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $69.69 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $59.42 (P10) to $75.26 (P90), with a median of $67.18.
K's current P/E of 21.5x compares to the industry median of 20.8x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +3.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.9x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
34 analysts cover K with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $74.03 (range: $60.00 — $87.00), implying -11.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (20), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: K trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (18.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that K's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2390.0% to approximately $64. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.