MODEL VERDICT
Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. (KBDC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $15.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $14.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $14.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $14.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $14.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $16.01 | +6.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $13.21 | -12.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $13.21 | -12.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $1.93 | -87.2% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $16.01 | +6.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $14.16 | -6.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $14.04 | -7.0% | 100% | 68 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $9 | $12 | $16 | $19 | $23 |
| Conservative (7%) | $9 | $12 | $16 | $20 | $23 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $9 | $13 | $17 | $20 | $24 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $9 | $13 | $17 | $21 | $25 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates KBDC's fair value at $14.04 vs the current price of $15.09, implying -7.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 68/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $14.04 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.69 (P10) to $14.10 (P90), with a median of $13.33.
KBDC's current P/E of 9.0x compares to the industry median of 9.6x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -5.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Fair Value.
4 analysts cover KBDC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $15.00 (range: $15.00 — $15.00), implying -0.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 68/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for KBDC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.