MODEL VERDICT
KBR, Inc. (KBR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $37.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $35.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $36.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $36.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $36.67 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $69.02 | +84.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $77.14 | +106.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $60.70 | +62.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $73.35 | +95.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $77.30 | +106.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $61.42 | +64.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $58.40 | +55.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $66.78 | +78.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $57.86 | +54.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $70.18 | +87.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $75.56 | +101.8% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $27 | $33 | $40 | $47 | $53 |
| Conservative (7%) | $27 | $34 | $41 | $48 | $55 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $28 | $35 | $42 | $49 | $56 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $29 | $36 | $44 | $51 | $58 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 69.45 | 21.48 | 12.52 | 250.63 | 101.86 |
| EV/EBIT | 39.51 | 26.78 | 14.54 | 102.41 | 36.41 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.24 | 15.90 | 9.66 | 34.54 | 8.64 |
| P/FCF | 20.49 | 20.16 | 10.07 | 29.80 | 7.40 |
| P/FFO | 33.97 | 19.90 | 8.88 | 102.14 | 35.06 |
| P/AFFO | 52.39 | 24.64 | 9.57 | 190.96 | 69.41 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.03 | 3.99 | 2.34 | 5.37 | 1.25 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.92 | 0.91 | 0.67 | 1.25 | 0.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates KBR's fair value at $75.56 vs the current price of $37.45, implying +101.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $75.56 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $69.56 (P10) to $124.03 (P90), with a median of $91.86.
KBR's current P/E of 11.7x compares to the industry median of 18.9x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -38.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 69.4x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
31 analysts cover KBR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $51.67 (range: $45.00 — $60.00), implying +38.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (14), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 5.3% is 6.6 percentage points above the 5-year average (3.4%), with a Z-score of +1.9σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$143. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KBR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.9σ, meaning margins are 1.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (3.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 28190.0% to approximately $143. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.