MODEL VERDICT
Kimball Electronics, Inc. (KE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $27.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $27.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $26.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $26.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $25.94 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $38.61 | +41.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $84.10 | +209.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $31.80 | +16.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $191.88 | +605.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $56.94 | +109.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $198.46 | +629.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $89.84 | +230.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $95.18 | +249.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $31.64 | +16.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $191.83 | +605.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $69.07 | +153.8% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 34× | 37× | 40× (Current) | 43× | 46× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $24 | $26 | $28 | $30 | $32 |
| Conservative (5%) | $24 | $26 | $29 | $31 | $33 |
| Base Case (-0.9%) | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 | $31 |
| Bull Case (-1%) | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 | $31 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.16 | 18.22 | 9.71 | 40.91 | 10.44 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.30 | 14.37 | 7.06 | 18.41 | 3.78 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.66 | 7.91 | 5.11 | 9.14 | 1.27 |
| P/FCF | 10.02 | 9.00 | 4.63 | 17.44 | 5.87 |
| P/FFO | 8.56 | 8.09 | 6.06 | 12.89 | 2.15 |
| P/TBV | 1.24 | 1.33 | 0.89 | 1.38 | 0.17 |
| P/AFFO | 27.62 | 33.62 | 10.69 | 41.17 | 14.59 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.17 | 1.24 | 0.88 | 1.29 | 0.15 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.28 | 0.47 | 0.06 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates KE's fair value at $69.07 vs the current price of $27.21, implying +153.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $69.07 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $65.49 (P10) to $78.03 (P90), with a median of $71.60.
KE's current P/E of 40.0x compares to the industry median of 46.8x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -14.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.2x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
5 analysts cover KE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $32.00 (range: $32.00 — $32.00), implying +17.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: KE trades at the 5000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (20.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (3.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1180.0% to approximately $30. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.