MODEL VERDICT
Kewaunee Scientific Corporation (KEQU)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 19 analyst estimates | $23.18 | -42.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 20 industry peers | $76.33 | +90.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 16 industry peers | $60.47 | +50.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 20 industry peers | $55.94 | +39.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 19 industry peers | $81.35 | +102.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 20 industry peers | $66.14 | +64.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 22 industry peers | $68.04 | +69.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 22 industry peers | $50.22 | +25.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 15 industry peers | $61.50 | +53.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 20 industry peers | $55.74 | +38.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $131.91 | +228.7% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $24 | $32 | $40 | $48 | $56 |
| Conservative (7%) | $24 | $33 | $41 | $49 | $57 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $25 | $34 | $42 | $51 | $59 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $26 | $35 | $43 | $52 | $61 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.44 | 17.11 | 9.70 | 61.85 | 24.60 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.30 | 14.11 | 8.15 | 20.84 | 5.65 |
| EV/EBITDA | 125.68 | 13.73 | 6.51 | 668.13 | 244.07 |
| P/FCF | 13.69 | 11.97 | 8.83 | 20.27 | 5.91 |
| P/FFO | 11.08 | 8.74 | 6.89 | 19.96 | 5.99 |
| P/TBV | 1.75 | 1.23 | 0.79 | 3.23 | 1.08 |
| P/AFFO | 366.63 | 10.38 | 7.96 | 1081.55 | 619.14 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.55 | 1.23 | 0.79 | 3.23 | 0.90 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.39 | 0.26 | 0.23 | 0.89 | 0.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates KEQU's fair value at $131.91 vs the current price of $40.13, implying +228.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $131.91 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $49.53 (P10) to $415.55 (P90), with a median of $153.06.
KEQU's current P/E of 10.5x compares to the industry median of 15.8x (16 peers in the group). This represents a -33.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.4x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for KEQU.
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 4.1% is 4.8 percentage points above the 4-year average (2.0%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$50. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KEQU's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (2.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2460.0% to approximately $50. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.