MODEL VERDICT
Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $29.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $32.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $34.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $33.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $33.76 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $41.24 | +39.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $63.61 | +115.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $38.99 | +31.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $67.47 | +128.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $40.08 | +35.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $50.43 | +70.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 9 industry peers | $11.18 | -62.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $50.40 | +70.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $51.00 | +72.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $38.99 | +31.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $67.47 | +128.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $39.67 | +34.2% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $23 | $27 | $31 | $36 | $40 |
| Conservative (8%) | $24 | $28 | $32 | $37 | $41 |
| Base Case (12.4%) | $25 | $29 | $34 | $38 | $42 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $26 | $30 | $35 | $39 | $44 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.49 | 13.09 | 6.61 | 34.18 | 10.01 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.06 | 10.81 | 5.34 | 54.61 | 19.93 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.41 | 5.24 | 3.68 | 11.09 | 2.72 |
| P/FCF | 17.66 | 14.76 | 8.35 | 36.33 | 9.77 |
| P/FFO | 9.44 | 5.46 | 4.13 | 29.29 | 8.98 |
| P/TBV | 1.63 | 1.22 | 0.89 | 3.97 | 1.06 |
| P/AFFO | 46.22 | 15.11 | 7.62 | 200.84 | 76.00 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.62 | 1.22 | 0.89 | 3.97 | 1.06 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.44 | 2.21 | 1.52 | 4.81 | 1.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates KGC's fair value at $39.67 vs the current price of $29.55, implying +34.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $39.67 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $37.60 (P10) to $53.78 (P90), with a median of $45.52.
KGC's current P/E of 14.8x compares to the industry median of 19.6x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -24.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.5x over 6 years. Signal: Discount.
28 analysts cover KGC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $42.25 (range: $33.00 — $54.00), implying +43.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (9), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 36.0% is 23.0 percentage points above the 6-year average (25.3%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$22. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KGC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (25.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2680.0% to approximately $22. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.