MODEL VERDICT
Kingstone Companies, Inc. (KINS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 44 industry peers | $18.61 | +17.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 46 industry peers | $10.42 | -34.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 42 analyst estimates | $23.57 | +48.2% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Earnings Yield 44 industry peers | $18.61 | +17.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 46 bank peers | $11.49 | -27.7% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 46 industry peers | $14.13 | -11.1% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 45 industry peers | $1380.21 | +8580.6% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $117.87 | +641.3% | 100% | 76 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $11 | $14 | $17 | $20 | $23 |
| Conservative (7%) | $11 | $14 | $17 | $20 | $24 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $11 | $15 | $18 | $21 | $24 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $12 | $15 | $18 | $22 | $25 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 48.22 | 61.00 | 10.26 | 73.40 | 33.45 |
| EV/EBIT | 66.27 | 40.95 | 6.39 | 151.46 | 75.78 |
| EV/EBITDA | 33.20 | 41.25 | 6.65 | 51.72 | 23.58 |
| P/FCF | 4.74 | 3.31 | 2.67 | 9.69 | 3.31 |
| P/FFO | 22.17 | 18.60 | 9.07 | 38.85 | 15.21 |
| P/TBV | 1.53 | 1.21 | 0.67 | 2.85 | 0.88 |
| P/AFFO | 79.46 | 88.22 | 10.22 | 139.95 | 65.31 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.21 | 0.77 | 0.40 | 2.83 | 0.91 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.66 | 0.54 | 0.11 | 1.67 | 0.58 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates KINS's fair value at $117.87 vs the current price of $15.90, implying +641.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $117.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $58.60 (P10) to $196.83 (P90), with a median of $124.65.
KINS's current P/E of 10.7x compares to the industry median of 12.6x (44 peers in the group). This represents a -14.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 48.2x over 3 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
4 analysts cover KINS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (1), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (25), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for KINS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.