MODEL VERDICT
KKR Group Finance Co. IX LLC 4. (KKRS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $17.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $17.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $17.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $17.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $17.59 | Below threshold | -0.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 41 industry peers | $61.56 | +250.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 44 industry peers | $0.03 | -99.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 42 bank peers | $0.02 | -99.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 32 industry peers | $20.99 | +19.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 39 industry peers | $64.97 | +269.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.27 | +20.9% | 100% | 59 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 5× | 7× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $21 | $21 | $21 | $27 | $38 |
| Conservative (5%) | $22 | $22 | $22 | $28 | $39 |
| Base Case (-8.8%) | $19 | $19 | $19 | $24 | $34 |
| Bull Case (-12%) | $19 | $19 | $19 | $23 | $32 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 3.15 | 3.48 | 1.35 | 4.62 | 1.66 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.12 | 5.91 | 2.78 | 33.67 | 17.01 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.89 | 5.50 | 1.05 | 11.53 | 4.88 |
| P/FFO | 3.58 | 3.56 | 0.89 | 6.28 | 2.69 |
| P/TBV | 268.08 | 0.45 | 0.26 | 1071.16 | 535.38 |
| P/AFFO | 3.70 | 3.67 | 0.90 | 6.54 | 2.82 |
| P/B Ratio | 268.04 | 0.39 | 0.23 | 1071.16 | 535.41 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.21 | 0.98 | 0.67 | 2.19 | 0.70 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates KKRS's fair value at $21.27 vs the current price of $17.59, implying +20.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.27 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $31.20 (P10) to $56.93 (P90), with a median of $42.82.
KKRS's current P/E of 3.3x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (41 peers in the group). This represents a -71.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 3.1x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for KKRS.
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: KKRS trades at the 980th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (3.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KKRS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (25.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 660.0% to approximately $19. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.