MODEL VERDICT
Synchrony Financial (SYF) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $69.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $73.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $71.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $73.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $86.89 | Below threshold | -14.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 41 industry peers | $100.06 | +44.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 44 industry peers | $63.04 | -8.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 42 bank peers | $48.39 | -30.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 32 industry peers | $31.10 | -55.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 39 industry peers | $105.60 | +52.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 41 analyst estimates | $77.25 | +11.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $71.51 | +3.5% | 100% | 86 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $35 | $53 | $71 | $89 | $106 |
| Conservative (6%) | $36 | $54 | $72 | $90 | $109 |
| Base Case (9.0%) | $37 | $56 | $75 | $93 | $112 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $38 | $58 | $77 | $96 | $115 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 7.81 | 6.48 | 5.34 | 15.29 | 3.38 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.44 | 6.16 | 4.99 | 13.78 | 3.03 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.61 | 5.53 | 4.52 | 11.36 | 2.38 |
| P/FCF | 2.56 | 2.64 | 1.88 | 3.72 | 0.63 |
| P/FFO | 6.58 | 5.90 | 4.62 | 11.60 | 2.29 |
| P/TBV | 1.74 | 1.80 | 1.34 | 2.32 | 0.36 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.47 | 1.57 | 1.16 | 1.93 | 0.29 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.44 | 1.25 | 0.93 | 2.35 | 0.47 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates SYF's fair value at $71.51 vs the current price of $69.11, implying +3.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $71.51 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $59.03 (P10) to $85.04 (P90), with a median of $71.18.
SYF's current P/E of 8.1x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (41 peers in the group). This represents a -30.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 7.8x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
41 analysts cover SYF with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $90.08 (range: $81.00 — $100.00), implying +30.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (26), Hold (14), Sell (0), Strong Sell (1).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SYF trades at the 2930th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (7.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SYF's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1610.0% to approximately $80. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.