MODEL VERDICT
Mastercard Incorporated (MA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $517.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $526.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $518.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $540.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $575.54 | Below threshold | -7.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 41 industry peers | $184.73 | -64.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 44 industry peers | $13.14 | -97.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Dividend Yield 32 industry peers | $96.07 | -81.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 39 industry peers | $193.20 | -62.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 41 analyst estimates | $163.57 | -68.4% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $273.74 | -47.1% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 28× | 31× (Current) | 34× | 37× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $448 | $501 | $555 | $609 | $663 |
| Conservative (14%) | $469 | $526 | $582 | $638 | $695 |
| Base Case (21.0%) | $500 | $560 | $620 | $680 | $740 |
| Bull Case (28%) | $530 | $593 | $657 | $721 | $784 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 39.60 | 37.61 | 33.99 | 56.03 | 7.62 |
| EV/EBIT | 32.11 | 30.81 | 27.32 | 44.43 | 5.85 |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.74 | 30.11 | 25.34 | 41.76 | 5.57 |
| P/FCF | 38.49 | 34.76 | 29.88 | 55.11 | 8.39 |
| P/FFO | 36.72 | 35.32 | 31.61 | 51.36 | 6.82 |
| P/AFFO | 39.52 | 36.71 | 32.82 | 57.15 | 8.26 |
| P/B Ratio | 57.98 | 55.10 | 48.09 | 74.92 | 9.45 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 17.81 | 17.33 | 15.18 | 23.47 | 2.83 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates MA's fair value at $273.74 vs the current price of $517.21, implying -47.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $273.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $244.56 (P10) to $324.60 (P90), with a median of $283.37.
MA's current P/E of 31.3x compares to the industry median of 11.2x (41 peers in the group). This represents a +180.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 39.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
63 analysts cover MA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $667.00 (range: $610.00 — $739.00), implying +29.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (50), Hold (12), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (45.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2510.0% to approximately $647. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.