MODEL VERDICT
American Express Company (AXP) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $308.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $346.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $337.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $363.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $375.61 | Below threshold | -4.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 41 industry peers | $156.77 | -49.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 44 industry peers | $64.65 | -79.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 42 bank peers | $48.83 | -84.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 32 industry peers | $87.76 | -71.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 39 industry peers | $163.96 | -46.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 41 analyst estimates | $146.88 | -52.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $150.14 | -51.4% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $264 | $294 | $323 | $352 | $382 |
| Conservative (8%) | $272 | $302 | $332 | $363 | $393 |
| Base Case (11.9%) | $282 | $314 | $345 | $377 | $408 |
| Bull Case (16%) | $293 | $326 | $358 | $391 | $423 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.39 | 16.33 | 11.83 | 32.07 | 6.64 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.28 | 14.28 | 12.68 | 25.48 | 4.42 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.66 | 12.32 | 10.84 | 18.75 | 2.80 |
| P/FCF | 12.04 | 9.87 | 5.78 | 23.69 | 6.29 |
| P/FFO | 14.41 | 13.25 | 9.97 | 20.83 | 3.70 |
| P/TBV | 5.87 | 5.35 | 4.32 | 8.15 | 1.31 |
| P/AFFO | 18.20 | 16.29 | 11.86 | 30.45 | 6.08 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.95 | 4.50 | 3.67 | 6.99 | 1.12 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.35 | 2.19 | 1.89 | 2.91 | 0.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates AXP's fair value at $150.14 vs the current price of $308.90, implying -51.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $150.14 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $134.15 (P10) to $185.55 (P90), with a median of $159.09.
AXP's current P/E of 22.0x compares to the industry median of 11.2x (41 peers in the group). This represents a +97.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.4x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
56 analysts cover AXP with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $374.58 (range: $295.00 — $425.00), implying +21.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (21), Hold (31), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: AXP trades at the 7800th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (18.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AXP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1720.0% to approximately $256. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.