MODEL VERDICT
American Express Company (AXP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $319.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $314.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $331.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $329.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $313.50 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $305.55 | -4.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $70.74 | -77.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 6 bank peers | $66.18 | -79.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $198.57 | -37.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $303.69 | -5.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $209.10 | -34.6% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $218.36 | -31.7% | 100% | 87 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $295 | $330 | $365 | $400 | $434 |
| Conservative (21%) | $317 | $354 | $391 | $428 | $466 |
| Base Case (32.5%) | $346 | $387 | $428 | $469 | $509 |
| Bull Case (44%) | $376 | $420 | $464 | $509 | $553 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.13 | 16.71 | 15.02 | 32.07 | 6.22 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.01 | 17.00 | 12.68 | 25.48 | 4.46 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.35 | 14.90 | 10.84 | 18.75 | 3.00 |
| P/FCF | 12.80 | 9.87 | 5.78 | 23.69 | 6.43 |
| P/FFO | 15.91 | 13.75 | 12.16 | 20.83 | 3.72 |
| P/TBV | 6.55 | 5.72 | 5.17 | 9.03 | 1.56 |
| P/AFFO | 20.12 | 16.40 | 15.25 | 30.45 | 5.86 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.52 | 4.91 | 4.24 | 7.69 | 1.36 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.53 | 2.54 | 2.00 | 3.20 | 0.47 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates AXP's fair value at $218.36 vs the current price of $319.64, implying -31.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $218.36 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $196.48 (P10) to $261.67 (P90), with a median of $228.14.
AXP's current P/E of 20.8x compares to the industry median of 19.9x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +4.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.1x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
57 analysts cover AXP with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $373.30 (range: $322.00 — $415.00), implying +16.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (21), Hold (32), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: AXP trades at the 6920th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (20.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AXP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 530.0% to approximately $303. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.