MODEL VERDICT
Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $195.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $208.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $207.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $219.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $249.20 | Below threshold | -10.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 41 industry peers | $129.60 | -33.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 44 industry peers | $264.59 | +35.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 42 bank peers | $159.89 | -18.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 32 industry peers | $76.05 | -61.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 39 industry peers | $135.54 | -30.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 41 analyst estimates | $169.12 | -13.6% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $149.10 | -23.8% | 100% | 86 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $154 | $177 | $201 | $225 | $248 |
| Conservative (5%) | $158 | $183 | $207 | $231 | $256 |
| Base Case (1.0%) | $152 | $176 | $199 | $222 | $246 |
| Bull Case (1%) | $153 | $176 | $200 | $223 | $247 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.20 | 9.31 | 5.19 | 19.08 | 5.36 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.18 | 11.24 | 5.43 | 14.17 | 3.44 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.68 | 6.77 | 4.37 | 8.88 | 1.81 |
| P/FCF | 3.42 | 3.02 | 2.56 | 5.55 | 1.05 |
| P/FFO | 5.62 | 5.44 | 3.46 | 8.56 | 1.85 |
| P/TBV | 1.16 | 1.13 | 0.97 | 1.50 | 0.21 |
| P/AFFO | 6.33 | 6.05 | 3.79 | 10.08 | 2.28 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.86 | 0.83 | 0.70 | 1.13 | 0.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.32 | 1.27 | 0.95 | 2.01 | 0.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates COF's fair value at $149.10 vs the current price of $195.64, implying -23.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $149.10 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $127.75 (P10) to $186.02 (P90), with a median of $155.85.
COF's current P/E of 16.9x compares to the industry median of 11.2x (41 peers in the group). This represents a +51.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.2x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
56 analysts cover COF with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $273.62 (range: $218.00 — $300.00), implying +39.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (33), Hold (19), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: COF trades at the 6590th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that COF's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1270.0% to approximately $220. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.