MODEL VERDICT
PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $50.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $50.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $50.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $49.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $45.25 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $162.25 | +221.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $91.97 | +82.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 6 bank peers | $62.33 | +23.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 4 industry peers | $12.84 | -74.5% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $167.91 | +232.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $114.93 | +127.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $126.04 | +149.9% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $28 | $39 | $50 | $62 | $73 |
| Conservative (6%) | $29 | $40 | $51 | $63 | $74 |
| Base Case (8.9%) | $29 | $41 | $53 | $65 | $77 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $30 | $42 | $55 | $67 | $79 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 36.32 | 34.08 | 10.79 | 66.16 | 21.35 |
| EV/EBIT | 29.49 | 23.19 | 8.68 | 53.50 | 19.10 |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.98 | 16.51 | 7.76 | 63.01 | 20.18 |
| P/FCF | 27.34 | 16.15 | 10.16 | 51.93 | 17.37 |
| P/FFO | 27.42 | 22.08 | 9.12 | 51.57 | 16.18 |
| P/TBV | 14.14 | 9.96 | 6.15 | 28.14 | 8.82 |
| P/AFFO | 33.00 | 27.22 | 10.57 | 61.44 | 19.85 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.60 | 4.34 | 2.79 | 13.86 | 4.18 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.54 | 3.00 | 1.70 | 12.96 | 4.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates PYPL's fair value at $126.04 vs the current price of $50.44, implying +149.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $126.04 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $96.05 (P10) to $160.05 (P90), with a median of $126.60.
PYPL's current P/E of 9.3x compares to the industry median of 30.0x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -68.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 36.3x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
70 analysts cover PYPL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $51.67 (range: $34.00 — $65.00), implying +2.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (27), Hold (39), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PYPL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 26050.0% to approximately $182. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.