MODEL VERDICT
Kulicke and Soffa Industries, Inc. (KLIC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $86.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $87.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $81.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $79.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $77.46 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $124.66 | +44.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $0.26 | -99.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $109.44 | +26.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $110.23 | +27.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $69.88 | -19.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $59.10 | -31.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $0.25 | -99.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $116.86 | +35.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $83.67 | -3.1% | 100% | 61 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8399× | 9199× | 9999× (Current) | 10799× | 11599× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $34 | $38 | $41 | $44 | $47 |
| Conservative (5%) | $35 | $39 | $42 | $45 | $49 |
| Base Case (-65.6%) | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 |
| Bull Case (-89%) | $4 | $4 | $5 | $5 | $5 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 1941.90 | 46.80 | 6.24 | 11390.00 | 4628.90 |
| EV/EBIT | 37.99 | 32.46 | 4.60 | 108.99 | 37.78 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.46 | 24.84 | 4.44 | 34.89 | 13.41 |
| P/FCF | 43.22 | 24.41 | 7.37 | 174.28 | 58.40 |
| P/FFO | 44.98 | 32.30 | 5.95 | 133.25 | 46.96 |
| P/TBV | 3.07 | 3.04 | 2.47 | 3.93 | 0.46 |
| P/AFFO | 446.25 | 54.56 | 6.27 | 2462.84 | 988.49 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.74 | 2.68 | 2.27 | 3.51 | 0.42 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.22 | 3.32 | 1.80 | 4.24 | 0.81 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates KLIC's fair value at $83.67 vs the current price of $86.33, implying -3.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 61/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $83.67 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $76.20 (P10) to $133.52 (P90), with a median of $103.39.
KLIC's current P/E of 9999.0x compares to the industry median of 66.2x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +15006.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 1941.9x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
11 analysts cover KLIC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $62.50 (range: $55.00 — $70.00), implying -27.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (4), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 61/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: KLIC trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (1941.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for KLIC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.