MODEL VERDICT
Kennametal Inc. (KMT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $38.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $39.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $38.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $38.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $38.85 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $64.87 | +68.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $63.37 | +64.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $41.02 | +6.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $47.45 | +23.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $44.60 | +15.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $42.43 | +10.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $103.20 | +168.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $111.76 | +190.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $41.22 | +7.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $47.25 | +22.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $48.83 | +26.9% | 100% | 78 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 29× | 32× (Current) | 35× | 38× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $32 | $36 | $40 | $44 | $47 |
| Conservative (7%) | $33 | $37 | $41 | $45 | $49 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $34 | $38 | $42 | $46 | $50 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $35 | $39 | $44 | $48 | $52 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.47 | 17.60 | 12.72 | 55.25 | 16.03 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.74 | 14.27 | 10.12 | 95.54 | 30.76 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.64 | 8.06 | 7.42 | 24.95 | 6.49 |
| P/FCF | 21.57 | 21.22 | 11.33 | 34.85 | 9.08 |
| P/FFO | 12.13 | 8.68 | 7.31 | 26.35 | 7.04 |
| P/TBV | 2.67 | 2.27 | 2.05 | 3.48 | 0.62 |
| P/AFFO | 22.09 | 14.91 | 11.26 | 56.48 | 17.22 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.88 | 1.67 | 1.49 | 2.37 | 0.38 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.23 | 1.13 | 0.94 | 1.64 | 0.29 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates KMT's fair value at $48.83 vs the current price of $38.47, implying +26.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $48.83 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $45.25 (P10) to $58.12 (P90), with a median of $51.60.
KMT's current P/E of 32.1x compares to the industry median of 34.2x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -6.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.5x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
23 analysts cover KMT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $36.00 (range: $29.00 — $40.00), implying -6.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (13), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: KMT trades at the 6250th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (23.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KMT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (8.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1450.0% to approximately $44. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.