MODEL VERDICT
KNOT Offshore Partners LP (KNOP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $11.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $10.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $10.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $10.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $10.18 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $9.86 | -11.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $24.42 | +118.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $2.67 | -76.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $56.18 | +402.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $41.87 | +274.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $14.79 | +32.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $33.66 | +200.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $2.66 | -76.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $56.18 | +402.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.94 | +69.3% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 45× | 49× | 53× (Current) | 57× | 61× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $10 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
| Conservative (5%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $13 |
| Base Case (-33.0%) | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 | $9 |
| Bull Case (-45%) | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.09 | 9.71 | 7.14 | 25.95 | 7.13 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.87 | 14.49 | 12.16 | 33.24 | 7.38 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.37 | 7.44 | 5.58 | 8.28 | 0.93 |
| P/FCF | 2.99 | 3.21 | 1.37 | 3.95 | 1.05 |
| P/FFO | 2.98 | 3.17 | 1.50 | 4.33 | 0.90 |
| P/TBV | 0.63 | 0.71 | 0.31 | 0.91 | 0.22 |
| P/AFFO | 2.83 | 3.14 | 1.51 | 3.51 | 0.78 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.63 | 0.71 | 0.31 | 0.91 | 0.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 0.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.52 | 1.76 | 0.60 | 2.29 | 0.64 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates KNOP's fair value at $18.94 vs the current price of $11.19, implying +69.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.94 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.24 (P10) to $22.00 (P90), with a median of $19.07.
KNOP's current P/E of 53.3x compares to the industry median of 12.7x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +318.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.1x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
12 analysts cover KNOP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $16.00 (range: $16.00 — $16.00), implying +43.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (5), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: KNOP trades at the 9600th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (12.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KNOP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (32.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5000.0% to approximately $6. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.