MODEL VERDICT
Kilroy Realty Corporation (KRC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $33.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $31.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $31.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $30.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $28.22 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 8 REIT peers | $40.16 | +19.4% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $34.18 | +1.6% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $44.11 | +31.1% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $39.77 | +18.2% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $76.25 | +126.7% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $29.11 | -13.5% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $32.27 | -4.1% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $29.33 | -12.8% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $47.05 | +39.9% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $24 | $29 | $33 | $38 | $43 |
| Conservative (5%) | $24 | $29 | $34 | $39 | $44 |
| Base Case (7.3%) | $25 | $30 | $35 | $40 | $45 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $25 | $31 | $36 | $41 | $46 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.83 | 22.13 | 12.40 | 59.50 | 16.08 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.58 | 24.94 | 15.67 | 46.65 | 10.37 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.65 | 13.80 | 13.38 | 24.80 | 4.39 |
| P/FCF | 334.78 | 118.98 | 79.66 | 805.71 | 408.31 |
| P/FFO | 10.33 | 8.27 | 7.16 | 18.57 | 4.16 |
| P/TBV | 1.12 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 1.92 | 0.42 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.11 | 0.85 | 0.79 | 1.91 | 0.42 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.04 | 4.21 | 4.00 | 10.40 | 2.57 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates KRC's fair value at $47.05 vs the current price of $33.64, implying +39.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $47.05 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $39.56 (P10) to $54.87 (P90), with a median of $46.50.
KRC's current P/E of 14.5x compares to the industry median of 32.9x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -55.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.8x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
28 analysts cover KRC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $37.71 (range: $29.00 — $42.00), implying +12.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (16), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KRC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (26.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9900.0% to approximately $67. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.