MODEL VERDICT
Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $65.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $70.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $83.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $92.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $82.52 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $20.59 | -68.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $14.90 | -77.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 2 industry peers | $4.34 | -93.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 2 industry peers | $3.16 | -95.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 2 industry peers | $9.24 | -85.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 2 industry peers | $0.45 | -99.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $12.89 | -80.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $15.37 | -76.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $4.22 | -93.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 2 industry peers | $2.76 | -95.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.93 | -80.3% | 100% | 53 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 574× | 629× | 684× (Current) | 739× | 794× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $57 | $63 | $68 | $74 | $79 |
| Conservative (7%) | $59 | $64 | $70 | $76 | $81 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $61 | $66 | $72 | $78 | $84 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $63 | $69 | $75 | $81 | $87 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates KRMN's fair value at $12.93 vs the current price of $65.73, implying -80.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 53/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.93 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.30 (P10) to $19.73 (P90), with a median of $15.43.
KRMN's current P/E of 684.0x compares to the industry median of 45.2x (2 peers in the group). This represents a +1414.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
8 analysts cover KRMN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $119.67 (range: $98.00 — $130.00), implying +82.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (0), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 53/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (22), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KRMN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 46180.0% to approximately $369. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.