MODEL VERDICT
Kura Sushi USA, Inc. (KRUS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $56.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $56.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $59.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $60.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $55.26 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $31.73 | -43.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $25.12 | -55.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $293.54 | +423.1% | 100% | 51 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 847.81 | 105.16 | 27.61 | 3919.23 | 1717.27 |
| P/FFO | 122.50 | 86.63 | 38.74 | 340.21 | 123.98 |
| P/TBV | 4.66 | 5.02 | 2.28 | 7.66 | 1.92 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.60 | 4.91 | 2.26 | 7.59 | 1.92 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.35 | 3.60 | 2.18 | 10.62 | 2.90 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 7 valuation metrics, the model estimates KRUS's fair value at $293.54 vs the current price of $56.11, implying +423.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 51/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $293.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.06 (P10) to $693.27 (P90), with a median of $204.37.
KRUS's current P/E of -350.7x compares to the industry median of 36.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -1059.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover KRUS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $73.40 (range: $62.00 — $85.00), implying +30.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 51/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for KRUS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.