MODEL VERDICT
Kohl's Corporation (KSS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $14.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $14.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $14.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $14.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $13.28 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $19.00 | +29.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $69.62 | +374.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $36.78 | +150.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $119.34 | +714.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $37.21 | +153.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $109.82 | +649.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $112.90 | +670.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $138.72 | +846.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $36.78 | +150.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $117.32 | +700.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $55.73 | +280.1% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 6× (Current) | 8× | 10× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $10 | $10 | $15 | $20 | $25 |
| Conservative (7%) | $10 | $10 | $15 | $20 | $25 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $10 | $10 | $16 | $21 | $26 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $11 | $11 | $16 | $22 | $27 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.51 | 10.03 | 7.79 | 14.47 | 2.66 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.58 | 13.31 | 8.08 | 42.45 | 12.93 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.23 | 6.87 | 3.41 | 12.07 | 2.93 |
| P/FCF | 6.14 | 5.81 | 2.13 | 10.04 | 2.87 |
| P/FFO | 4.15 | 3.84 | 1.85 | 8.81 | 2.32 |
| P/TBV | 1.13 | 1.21 | 0.41 | 2.19 | 0.60 |
| P/AFFO | 8.01 | 6.38 | 3.91 | 16.62 | 4.88 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.98 | 0.82 | 0.41 | 1.57 | 0.44 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.25 | 0.18 | 0.10 | 0.40 | 0.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates KSS's fair value at $55.73 vs the current price of $14.66, implying +280.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $55.73 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $45.32 (P10) to $77.25 (P90), with a median of $60.58.
KSS's current P/E of 6.2x compares to the industry median of 15.5x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -60.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.5x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
39 analysts cover KSS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $18.00 (range: $8.00 — $25.00), implying +22.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (20), Sell (8), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KSS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (3.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 21940.0% to approximately $47. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.